scenarios
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6 November 2018
How To Measure The Proximity To A Market Crash: Introducing System Resilience Indicators (‘SRI’)
A big crash will make investors realize how badly they need better ways to understand and track risk.
scenarios
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25 September 2018
Twin Bubbles: How Stretched?
Indicators for measuring the Equity Bubble and the Bond Bubble point to vertiginous peaks. Nobody cares.
scenarios
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26 August 2018
Financial Complexity & Nonlinear Dynamics
scenarios
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9 July 2018
Analysis of Market Structure: Towards A Low-Diversity Trap
How The Market Structure Weakened Progressively In Recent Years Reaching The Point Where It Now Looks As Bad As After A Flash Crash
scenarios
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8 June 2018
The Increasing Frequency of VAR-shocks is a Crash Hallmark
Systemic Risk as a Complexity Problem
scenarios
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11 April 2018
While Markets Scramble For Direction, On The Edge Of The Cliff, Turkey Cracks
Dum Markets Consulitur, Turkey Expugnatur
scenarios
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12 February 2018
Markets Poised At Criticality
Just A Correction Or Early Tremors?
scenarios
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2 February 2018
The Market System Is Tight In All Directions
The Four Pillars Holding Markets Up Are Strained, All At The Same Time
scenarios
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19 January 2018
Measuring the Equity Bubble: an update of the ‘Peak PEG’ Ratio
scenarios
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10 January 2018
Fragile Markets On The ‘Edge Of Chaos’
Financial markets are complex adaptive systems, where positive feedback loops undermine resilience and bring to the brink of critical transformation
scenarios
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20 November 2017
Positive Feedback Loops and Financial Instability: The Blind Spot of Policymakers
A Dangerous Market Structure is More Worrying than Expensive Asset Valuations and Record Debt Levels
scenarios
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11 September 2017
German Bunds have never before been this expensive: the ‘Real Rate to Growth’ Ratio
Measuring the Bond Bubble